How long would it take for civilization to break down? [long]

[MeinZombie]

Ok, short intro to this: Just picked up All Flesh Must Be Eaten, the zombie tabletop RPG, and I'm the ZM (zombie Master). I plan on running a fairly Romero-esque game, with the slow moving, short on brains, flesheaters. Ok, so the game is set in Atlanta Ga., and starts with a "night"-like scenario, there've been reports of "gangs of cannibals" and "mass hysteria", and the first cases are starting to filter into the city. Ok, we all know where it goes from here, but my big question is, how long would it take?

If you go back to the "living dead" movies, you see how it works. Night- they get up, they wander around eating people that are singled out. Dawn-people are still living in the cities but its getting worse, getting away from it all seems to help. Day- the cities are dead (ha!) and most human life is centered around well defended camps. Land- civilization has been (somewhat) re-built. Ok, now taking the timeframe of the movies as they were released doesn't work to well. (Example: theres a 10 year span between Night and Dawn, so it took a long time for the zombies to infect the cities, or the one's shown haven't really figured out something to do about the situation.)

Ok, so how long would it take for all the gears to quit meshing, and civilization to come to a screeching halt? I did some research on how long the electricity would last, and Atlanta is powered by Georgia Electric, which generates power thru fossil fuel, and hydroelectric plants. Surrounding Atlanta, there are 3 fossil plants, and 1 small hydroelectric dam, and in the event of this happening most ones further away will be unuseable because of downed wires, etc, I feel this is what Atlanta will be relying on.

In the event of a sudden outbreak, and no human influence, a fossil plant would run roughly 12-18 hours before bringing the grid down. A hydroelectric plant could run for several days up to several weeks, optimistically. Based on this, there would be scattered black outs in 4-6 hours, the system would be unstable in 12-18 hours, and most of the area would be down in under 24 hours, with the fossil plants going down, and the dam being unable to support the downed grids, and failing itself.

In the event of a gradual outbreak, most fossil fuel plants have a stock pile to last for 45-60 days, or upto 6 months with a greatly reduced load. The generators would go down after this has been exhausted, unless more train loads of coal could be brought in, and made usuable. This would be an unlikely situation, needing miners, someone to load the train, someone to transport it, someone to unload it, and also someone to monitor the control. This also discounts reanimated workes going back to thier old jobs, pushing buttons, puling levers, etc.

Ok, so with the power lasting, best case, 6 months, how long do you guys think it would take for every thing to come tumbling down? We also need to factor in other things: How long would the police/military stick around to help, how long would canned stockpiles last, how long would the roads be usuable before being choked by abandoned cars, how long would most people try and stay in the city, and most importantly, what would the infection percentage be in a modern city of almost 4 million?

[awfulman]

I think it's great that you've done research into this! Please continue to post your findings here, as I find the subject fascinating!

[Zombie Survivor]

Yeah it's all fascinating, but between Night and Dawn is a span of a couple of weeks.

[Dr. Freudstein]

I think you're a bit optimistic with your estimate of the availability of electricity after an outbreak.

Canada and the United States are reliant on one another for their power supply, and this is provided by four main sources; coal (fossil fuel), nuclear, hydroelectric and natural gas.

The coal industry needs a continuous supply of fuel to power its stations, it has limited reserves and places a great reliance on human manpower to manage its power output. Considering an outbreak would sever the link with the railway industry and the ability to replace fuel, not to mention the desertion of its workforce upon hearing the news, power stations using fossil fuel would cease to provide electricity after 36 hours.

Nuclear Power provides one fifth of America's fuel needs, but considering there are built in safety measures to prevent potential disasters (which need constant monitoring by technical staff), the absence of a human workforce may cause the plant to shut down prematurely. But in any situation, I very much doubt there would be power output for more than a week if left unattended.

Hydroelectric dams are obviously reliant on and provided with an endless supply of water; but how long they could continue to function without being manned is a matter for conjecture; I would suggest a number of weeks.

Gas pipelines would function correctly for a few days without monitoring.

In short, a far reaching, fast acting outbreak would see brownouts and blackouts starting within a day, with a country-wide blanket blackout within a week. Only installations with an independent fuel source (generator etc.) or alternative power (wind, solar etc.) would continue to function.

If there was a gradual outbreak, and power companies could staff their facilities with the National Guard, it's possible that plants using Hydroelectricity could run indefinitely barring component problems or the workforce being depleted to a critical level. Nuclear plants could last for a few years, Coal powered stations perhaps six months; but the gas pipeline would be the most at risk as it requires monitoring outside.

Power could be diverted away from heavily infected areas and protocols regarding safety could be ignored, so it's possible essential supplies could last for years, but that's only in a very best case scenario.

[MeinZombie]

I think you're a bit optimistic with your estimate of the availability of electricity after an outbreak.(snip)

I agree, mostly, with your post. Most of my figures were based off optimistic estimates, Personally, I'd cut those numbers in half if not less. I've been talking to my player who is the mechanic of the game, discussing possible power sources, post-zombie-outbreak, and these are the Ideas we've come up with.

If they're wanting something low-key, I suggested building a small hydro-electric plant on a more isolated river.
For something more.... comspicuous, the choices are between running upkeep on a current hydro-electic plant, or possibly a Simple-cycle natural gas turbines. The hydro plant would work well until something jams the turbines (zombie taking a walk on the bottom of the lake). Like you said, the natural gas would have problems with transport, etc. However, currently, many are left unattended for days at a time, since they have very few moving parts.
All things considered, this will be a moot point, unless the players know to cut the plant off the grid and set it up as an "island".

If anyone was wondering, heres where I stole all my info: <a href="http://www.straightdope.com/mailbag/mzombiepower.html">

[Preach]

3-4 days tops :drool:

[StompinCharlie]

I eat what I kill, I poop in a shed, and I use candles. Let the grid go down, lord, I don't need it.

[Darth Erroneous]

I would like to see what kinds of accidents would occurr in these plants after the outbreak. Obviously, those who are working, monitoring, servicing, will have other things on their minds than providing their best work. If it were me, I would be more concerned about getting the hell out of there and somewhere safe. besides, I would know that the plant would eventually fail. Other than that, I would say that about a week before the world is flushed down the drain.

[montyburnz]

We may get a test of our theories if the Avian Flu ever jumps to humans. Since our immune systems have no experience with that (potential) virus it will go through us like a hot knife through butter.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/8485012/

[onehappyzombie]

from 2 years to 10 minutes

[StompinCharlie]

Well, could a nuclear power plant sustain itself in an undead outbreak as long as there was an armed garrison around to protect those manning the plant? It doesn't need anything shipped into it, like coal, besides food and basic supplies. I’d like to hear from anyone who knows about that.

If it were possible for a power plant to stay on, so long as the people working there were cooperative and well fed/protected, it could provide enough power to sustain a city/large area of land for survivors to hold out in with electricity. Hmm...

[ZOM13E con]

Ok, short intro to this: Just picked up All Flesh Must Be Eaten, the zombie tabletop RPG, and I'm the ZM (zombie Master). I plan on running a fairly Romero-esque game, with the slow moving, short on brains, flesheaters. Ok, so the game is set in Atlanta Ga., and starts with a "night"-like scenario, there've been reports of "gangs of cannibals" and "mass hysteria", and the first cases are starting to filter into the city. Ok, we all know where it goes from here, but my big question is, how long would it take?

If you go back to the "living dead" movies, you see how it works. Night- they get up, they wander around eating people that are singled out. Dawn-people are still living in the cities but its getting worse, getting away from it all seems to help. Day- the cities are dead (ha!) and most human life is centered around well defended camps. Land- civilization has been (somewhat) re-built. Ok, now taking the timeframe of the movies as they were released doesn't work to well. (Example: theres a 10 year span between Night and Dawn, so it took a long time for the zombies to infect the cities, or the one's shown haven't really figured out something to do about the situation.)

Ok, so how long would it take for all the gears to quit meshing, and civilization to come to a screeching halt? I did some research on how long the electricity would last, and Atlanta is powered by Georgia Electric, which generates power thru fossil fuel, and hydroelectric plants. Surrounding Atlanta, there are 3 fossil plants, and 1 small hydroelectric dam, and in the event of this happening most ones further away will be unuseable because of downed wires, etc, I feel this is what Atlanta will be relying on.

In the event of a sudden outbreak, and no human influence, a fossil plant would run roughly 12-18 hours before bringing the grid down. A hydroelectric plant could run for several days up to several weeks, optimistically. Based on this, there would be scattered black outs in 4-6 hours, the system would be unstable in 12-18 hours, and most of the area would be down in under 24 hours, with the fossil plants going down, and the dam being unable to support the downed grids, and failing itself.

In the event of a gradual outbreak, most fossil fuel plants have a stock pile to last for 45-60 days, or upto 6 months with a greatly reduced load. The generators would go down after this has been exhausted, unless more train loads of coal could be brought in, and made usuable. This would be an unlikely situation, needing miners, someone to load the train, someone to transport it, someone to unload it, and also someone to monitor the control. This also discounts reanimated workes going back to thier old jobs, pushing buttons, puling levers, etc.

Ok, so with the power lasting, best case, 6 months, how long do you guys think it would take for every thing to come tumbling down? We also need to factor in other things: How long would the police/military stick around to help, how long would canned stockpiles last, how long would the roads be usuable before being choked by abandoned cars, how long would most people try and stay in the city, and most importantly, what would the infection percentage be in a modern city of almost 4 million?



im sorry but shouldnt this be in the undead survival and defence section an not the zombie games and collectibles?

[Dr. Foster]

this has deviated a little from the original question...which is how long would it take for civilization to break down? I think it greatly depends on the source of the outbreak, if the first zombies are off in idaho somewhere, the whole thing could be smoothed over in a few days, no societal loss. if it were to start in, oh lets say...Manhattan, it would take a day, maybe 2 before the government called it a lost cause and began evacuating the wealthy. as ted nugent would say, "It's a FREE FOR ALL!!!"

[RobDimension]

I know this is an old thread - but I am looking for anyone who plays or has played this RPG game. Just curious on how it is? How long does your campaigns last and how many characters are too many? Thanks in advance.

Dimension